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Multi-scale Modeling and Viral Pandemics (1/27/2022)

Contributors
Stacey Smith?, University of Ottawa. Title: Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?

Vivek Kapur, Pennsylvania State University. Title: Bambi Got Covid.
Institution/ Affiliation
Stacey Smith?, University of Ottawa.

Vivek Kapur, Pennsylvania State University.
Presentation Details (date, conference, etc.)

January 27, 2022, IMAG/MSM WG on Multiscale Modeling and Viral Pandemics

 

  1.  Stacey Smith?, University of Ottawa. Title: Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? Abstract: In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (β) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned—as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine—then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout. YouTube and Slides.
  2. Vivek Kapur, Pennsylvania State University. Title: Bambi Got Covid.
    SV Kuchipudi et al. "Multiple spillovers from humans and onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer" Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Feb 8;119(6):e2121644119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2121644119. PMID: 35078920. https://www.pnas.org/content/119/6/e2121644119.long YouTube and Slides.