Model-Based Retrospective Estimates for COVID-19 or Coronavirus in India: Continued Efforts Required to Contain the Virus Spread

Submitted by ace_modelers on Tue, 03/24/2020 - 19:38
Authors
Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Steven G. Krantz, Thomas Kurien, Ramesh Bhat, Sudhakar Kurapati
DOI
Cite this article as:
Rao, A.S.R.S, Krantz S.G., Kurien T, Bhat, R, Sudhakar K (2020). Model-Based Retrospective Estimates for COVID-19 or Coronavirus in India: Continued Efforts Required to Contain the Virus Spread, Current Science, 118, 7: 1023-1025.
Publication journal
Current Science (2020), 118, 7:1023-1025.

 

We provide model-based estimates of COVID-19 in India for the period March 1 to 15, 2020, to assist further in government’s continued efforts in containing the spread. During this period, our results indicate COVID-19 numbers in India might be between 9225 to 44265 if there was a community-level spread under three different scenarios (two likely and one unlikely). As observed in other countries the majority of them would not need hospitalizations.

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Keywords
Coronavirus outbreak 2019-2020, wavelets, dynamic modeling, India