Contributors
Virginia Pasour, ARO biomath program, Title: The Biomathematics Program at the US Army Research Office (ARO).
Tomasz Lipniacki, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Poland. Title: Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with Ro higher than initially estimated.
Tomasz Lipniacki, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Poland. Title: Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with Ro higher than initially estimated.
Institution/ Affiliation
Virginia Pasour, ARO biomath program
Tomasz Lipniacki, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Poland.
Tomasz Lipniacki, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Poland.
Presentation Details (date, conference, etc.)
September 9, 2021, IMAG/MSM WG on Multiscale Modeling and Viral Pandemics
- Virginia Pasour, ARO biomath program, Title: The Biomathematics Program at the US Army Research Office (ARO). Abstract: I will give a brief introduction to research at ARO as well as the specific goals of the Biomathematics Program and will welcome questions about opportunities related to the Working Group members’ interests. YouTube and Slides.
- Tomasz Lipniacki, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Poland. Title: Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with Ro higher than initially estimated. Abstract: The basic reproduction number R0 of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. Here, we used an SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates of the doubling time in the near-exponential phases of epidemic progression in China, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, Switzerland and New York State, we estimated that R0 lies in the range 4.7–11.4. We explained this discrepancy by performing stochastic simulations of model dynamics in a population with a small proportion of super-spreaders. The simulations revealed two-phase dynamics, in which an initial phase of relatively slow epidemic progression diverts to a faster phase upon appearance of infectious super-spreaders. Early estimates obtained for this initial phase may suggest lower R0. YouTube and Slides.